The Market Is There – But Do We Have Coffee?

Kenya’s coffee story has always been a paradox. The country produces some of the most sought-after coffees in the world, yet national production continues to slide. The flavours are celebrated on cupping tables from Stockholm to Seoul, but too many farmers at home still wait months to be paid.

At the East Africa Coffee Markets & Conference (EACMC) 2025, that tension was laid bare. From the opening roundtable at Sankara to the packed plenaries at Oshwal Centre, speakers returned again and again to one uncomfortable question:

“The market is available, but do we have coffee?”

The numbers are stark. National production sits at around 50,000 tonnes, far below historical highs. Just 10 counties now produce 90 per cent of Kenya’s coffee. Across the country there are hundreds of cooperatives, over a thousand pulping stations, more than a thousand wet mills and dozens of dry mills – yet much of this processing capacity is underused.

Against that backdrop, the government’s coffee revitalisation agenda is now in full swing. From the podium, representatives of NewKPCU, the State Department for Cooperatives, AFA and others spoke of a sector being rebuilt while still in motion: debts written off, a massive seedling programme underway, new growing regions such as Kericho, Nyandarua and parts of the North coming into focus, and investments flowing into factory modernisation, extension services and youth training.

“Coffee is a game changer in the economy but it faces many challenges,” the Principal Secretary for Cooperatives reminded delegates. “We have increasing demand and under-supply. Prosperity has to begin at the farm.”

From 2kg to 10kg per tree

One figure became a kind of refrain throughout the conference: 2 kilogrammes per tree. That, on average, is what Kenyan coffee trees are currently producing.

The ambition being floated in policy and technical circles is to push that figure towards 10 kilogrammes per tree over time. Not overnight, and not everywhere at once, but as a clear signal of what is possible if agronomy, governance and finance finally pull in the same direction.

Getting there will require better agronomic practices, delivered in a way farmers can actually apply; access to affordable inputs such as subsidised fertiliser and high-quality seedlings; and cooperatives that are strong, transparent and well-managed. It also depends on a new generation of youth extension workers, trained and stationed in wards across the country, to bridge the gap between research stations and village plots.

The vision laid out from the stage is simple but demanding: unless yields and efficiency improve at farm level, the big numbers will remain out of reach. The targets of Ksh 100 billion in sector earnings, 30% domestic consumption and more diversified export markets will all be built – or broken – on what happens at the tree.

In one of the most quoted lines of the event, Raphael Prime, Managing Director of the East Africa School of Coffee, put it this way:

“Coffee must become the cash crop for the many, not the cash cow for the few.”

It was a reminder that the real test of any reform is whether it changes life for the farmer, not just the balance sheets of institutions.

From auction floor to farm gate: who really gets paid – and when?

If production was one pillar of the conversation, cashflow and markets were the other. The Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE) is often described as the beating heart of Kenya’s formal coffee trade. Its CEO took the Oshwal stage to demystify how prices are actually formed there: quality and grading; buyer competition on auction day; reserve prices set by cooperatives; global benchmarks; and the recent history of prices on the floor.

Around 80 per cent of Kenya’s coffee still moves through the NCE. The auction is live-streamed, and the Direct Settlement System (DSS) is designed to ensure money flows back to farmers via their cooperatives within five working days. In many ways, as several speakers noted, Kenya has a “well-functioning system” compared to some origins.

But then came a challenge, backed by data.

The Project ROAST team from Scaled Impact shared findings from a rigorous, multi-season study of 20 cooperatives and 300 farmers. Their conclusion was uncomfortable for many in the room: despite years of training programmes and a thick alphabet soup of certifications, farmer incomes were not rising in line with the effort.

Farmers, they noted, often wait up to seven months to be paid for their coffee. Meanwhile, across the border in Uganda, producers are typically paid far more quickly and enjoy more selling options.

Where cooperatives had managed to secure direct buyers outside the NCE system, the picture looked different. Those groups were earning up to 30 per cent more for their coffee. Crucially, they were also receiving better feedback on quality and lot performance – information they could take back to the farm and the factory.

The study’s recommendations were as direct as its title:

• Connect motivated cooperatives to reliable direct buyers.
• Design futures and advance-payment instruments so farmers can get cash at harvest, not months later.
• Build simple, trusted information and guidance channels so farmers actually understand what buyers want, where markets are shifting and what their options are.

The message was not to dismantle the NCE, but to complement it with more flexible, farmer-centred market linkages.

On the policy side, the Chairman of NewKPCU highlighted the Cherry Revolving Fund, which is already disbursing advances to farmers within 48–72 hours, at Ksh 40 per kilogramme for eligible deliveries. The Commodities Fund’s CEO outlined a farmer credit line, one-day loan approvals and a push to digitise cooperatives so loan appraisal and monitoring become faster and more transparent.

Fintech firms such as Verto added another piece to the puzzle: faster, clearer cross-border payment systems that could help exporters and traders manage foreign exchange and settlement risk, ultimately contributing to a smoother flow of money down the chain.

By the end of these sessions, a quiet consensus had formed: cashflow, governance and market linkages must be fixed together. Tuning only one lever will not be enough.

(Sidebar idea you can add visually: “3 Questions Every Coffee Farmer Should Ask About Cashflow” – then list the three questions you drafted.)

EUDR: Threat or Opportunity for Kenyan Coffee?

If production and cash were the first two big conversations at EACMC 2025, compliance – especially the European Union’s deforestation-free regulation, EUDR – was the third.

On paper, EUDR is daunting. It demands precise information on where coffee is grown (GPS coordinates for smallholder plots, detailed polygons for larger farms), full traceability from farm to export, and proof that production complies with both EU criteria and local land and labour laws. For smallholders operating far from computers and cadastral maps, that can sound like a distant, bureaucratic storm.

Yet the tone of the EUDR panel was not purely gloomy. AFA representatives shared that a large share of Kenya’s coffee plots had already been geo-mapped, with a target of over 90 per cent coverage and full completion by the end of 2025. On current trajectories, Kenya is being seen as “low risk” from an EU perspective – a position many other origins would love to occupy.

Around the table sat exporters, tech firms (CMS, eProd, FarmForce, Pula), Solidaridad, estate farmers and regulators. They agreed on a few hard truths. Certification is not the same as due diligence; it may open doors, but EUDR demands deeper proof. Data must be consolidated: a single, trusted source is needed to avoid duplication, gaps and conflicts. The cost burden on smallholders must be managed carefully, or the regulation could deepen inequality instead of reducing deforestation.

At the same time, many saw an upside. If Kenya organises itself well, EUDR could actually protect its premium positioning, by shutting out low-quality, non-compliant coffees from markets where Kenyan coffee already has strong recognition.